{"id":153,"date":"2009-06-07T11:03:00","date_gmt":"2009-06-07T11:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.co.uk\/SU\/?p=153"},"modified":"2023-04-13T12:27:20","modified_gmt":"2023-04-13T04:27:20","slug":"the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/","title":{"rendered":"Accountable Predictions Long Bets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"741\" height=\"127\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Long-Bets.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4076\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Long-Bets.png 741w, https:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Long-Bets-300x51.png 300w, https:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Long-Bets-500x86.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 741px) 100vw, 741px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Arena for Accountable Predictions or Long Bets site is:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8230;an arena for competitive, accountable predictions (Long Bets).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8230;a forum for focused discussion and debate about prediction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8230;an attractive tool for philanthropic giving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8230;a way to foster better long-term thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">People making long term predictions and prepared to put their money where their mouth is. Some bets are a bit ridiculous though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Update 2023<\/strong>: Some bets have already finished and from my observations most were wrong. e.g. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tesla will make a &lt;$30,000 car by 2015, By 02022, <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Aether Physics (or its equivalent) will take the place of General Relativity and Quantum Theory, <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be found guilty at a court of law or will flee from the country by 2020.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It would be good if the site owners made site  navigation better and had a section for bets which have finished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.longbets.org\/\">http:\/\/www.longbets.org\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Arena for Accountable Predictions or Long Bets site is: &#8230;an arena for competitive, accountable predictions (Long Bets).\u00a0 &#8230;a forum for focused discussion and debate about prediction. &#8230;an attractive tool for philanthropic giving. &#8230;a way to foster better long-term thinking. &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,102],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting-links","category-updated-2023"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.8 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Years of stumbling and blogging | http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/ | Accountable Predictions Long Bets | |\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"author\" content=\"OldNol\"\/>\n\t<meta name=\"keywords\" content=\"interesting links,updated 2023\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 4.9.8\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Nolli&#039;s online scrapbook | Years of stumbling and blogging\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Accountable Predictions Long Bets | Nolli&#039;s online scrapbook\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Years of stumbling and blogging | http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/ | Accountable Predictions Long Bets | |\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2009-06-07T11:03:00+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-13T04:27:20+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Accountable Predictions Long Bets | Nolli&#039;s online scrapbook\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Years of stumbling and blogging | http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/ | Accountable Predictions Long Bets | |\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"aioseo-schema\">\n\t\t\t{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/#article\",\"name\":\"Accountable Predictions Long Bets | Nolli's online scrapbook\",\"headline\":\"Accountable Predictions Long Bets\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/author\\\/oldnol\\\/#author\"},\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/#person\"},\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/04\\\/Long-Bets.png\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/#articleImage\",\"width\":741,\"height\":127},\"datePublished\":\"2009-06-07T11:03:00+08:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-13T12:27:20+08:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/#webpage\"},\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/#webpage\"},\"articleSection\":\"Interesting links, Updated 2023\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/#breadcrumblist\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU#listItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/category\\\/interesting-links\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Interesting links\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/category\\\/interesting-links\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Interesting links\",\"item\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/category\\\/interesting-links\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Accountable Predictions Long Bets\"},\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU#listItem\",\"name\":\"Home\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Accountable Predictions Long Bets\",\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/category\\\/interesting-links\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Interesting links\"}}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/#person\",\"name\":\"Nolli\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/#personImage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/b21a130de25f9d74d22ef50c2a9d57b387306cdf65159d3b07673e2ec8ca26d9?s=96&r=g\",\"width\":96,\"height\":96,\"caption\":\"Nolli\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/author\\\/oldnol\\\/#author\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/author\\\/oldnol\\\/\",\"name\":\"OldNol\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/\",\"name\":\"Accountable Predictions Long Bets | Nolli's online scrapbook\",\"description\":\"Years of stumbling and blogging | http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/ | Accountable Predictions Long Bets | |\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/#website\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\\\/#breadcrumblist\"},\"author\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/author\\\/oldnol\\\/#author\"},\"creator\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/author\\\/oldnol\\\/#author\"},\"datePublished\":\"2009-06-07T11:03:00+08:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-13T12:27:20+08:00\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/\",\"name\":\"Nolli's online scrapbook\",\"description\":\"Years of stumbling and blogging\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.nolligan.ie\\\/SU\\\/#person\"}}]}\n\t\t<\/script>\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO -->\n\n","aioseo_head_json":{"title":"Accountable Predictions Long Bets | Nolli's online scrapbook","description":"Years of stumbling and blogging | http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/ | Accountable Predictions Long Bets | |","canonical_url":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/","robots":"max-image-preview:large","keywords":"interesting links,updated 2023","webmasterTools":{"miscellaneous":""},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/#article","name":"Accountable Predictions Long Bets | Nolli's online scrapbook","headline":"Accountable Predictions Long Bets","author":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/author\/oldnol\/#author"},"publisher":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/#person"},"image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Long-Bets.png","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/#articleImage","width":741,"height":127},"datePublished":"2009-06-07T11:03:00+08:00","dateModified":"2023-04-13T12:27:20+08:00","inLanguage":"en-GB","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/#webpage"},"isPartOf":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/#webpage"},"articleSection":"Interesting links, Updated 2023"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/#breadcrumblist","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU#listItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/category\/interesting-links\/#listItem","name":"Interesting links"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/category\/interesting-links\/#listItem","position":2,"name":"Interesting links","item":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/category\/interesting-links\/","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/#listItem","name":"Accountable Predictions Long Bets"},"previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU#listItem","name":"Home"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/#listItem","position":3,"name":"Accountable Predictions Long Bets","previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/category\/interesting-links\/#listItem","name":"Interesting links"}}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/#person","name":"Nolli","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/#personImage","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b21a130de25f9d74d22ef50c2a9d57b387306cdf65159d3b07673e2ec8ca26d9?s=96&r=g","width":96,"height":96,"caption":"Nolli"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/author\/oldnol\/#author","url":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/author\/oldnol\/","name":"OldNol"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/#webpage","url":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/","name":"Accountable Predictions Long Bets | Nolli's online scrapbook","description":"Years of stumbling and blogging | http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/ | Accountable Predictions Long Bets | |","inLanguage":"en-GB","isPartOf":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/#website"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/#breadcrumblist"},"author":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/author\/oldnol\/#author"},"creator":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/author\/oldnol\/#author"},"datePublished":"2009-06-07T11:03:00+08:00","dateModified":"2023-04-13T12:27:20+08:00"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/#website","url":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/","name":"Nolli's online scrapbook","description":"Years of stumbling and blogging","inLanguage":"en-GB","publisher":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/#person"}}]},"og:locale":"en_GB","og:site_name":"Nolli's online scrapbook | Years of stumbling and blogging","og:type":"article","og:title":"Accountable Predictions Long Bets | Nolli's online scrapbook","og:description":"Years of stumbling and blogging | http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/ | Accountable Predictions Long Bets | |","og:url":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/","article:published_time":"2009-06-07T11:03:00+00:00","article:modified_time":"2023-04-13T04:27:20+00:00","twitter:card":"summary","twitter:title":"Accountable Predictions Long Bets | Nolli's online scrapbook","twitter:description":"Years of stumbling and blogging | http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/the-arena-for-accountable-predictions-long-bets\/ | Accountable Predictions Long Bets | |"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"153","title":null,"description":"#tagline #separator_sa #permalink #separator_sa #post_title #separator_sa #tax_name #separator_sa","keywords":[],"keyphrases":{"focus":{"keyphrase":"Long Bets","score":73,"analysis":{"keyphraseInTitle":{"score":9,"maxScore":9,"error":0},"keyphraseInDescription":{"score":9,"maxScore":9,"error":0},"keyphraseLength":{"score":9,"maxScore":9,"error":0,"length":2},"keyphraseInURL":{"score":1,"maxScore":5,"error":1},"keyphraseInIntroduction":{"score":3,"maxScore":9,"error":1},"keyphraseInSubHeadings":{"score":9,"maxScore":9,"error":0},"keyphraseInImageAlt":{"score":3,"maxScore":9,"error":1}}},"additional":[]},"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":"","og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":[],"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"Article","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[],"defaultGraph":"","defaultPostTypeGraph":""},"schema_type":null,"schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":"-1","robots_max_videopreview":"-1","robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":"default","location":null,"local_seo":null,"breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"ai":null,"created":"2020-12-31 09:20:23","updated":"2025-06-03 23:43:32","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=153"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4077,"href":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153\/revisions\/4077"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.nolligan.ie\/SU\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}